In 2025, the global outlook for acute food insecurity is driven by a convergence of protracted conflict, economic volatility, and adverse weather conditions. While the nature, combination and severity of shocks varies by context, the compounded impacts continue to disrupt food systems, constrain access to typical livelihood activities, and impede humanitarian operations. Conflict remains the most severe and widespread driver, particularly in settings with protracted violence or rising geopolitical tensions in East Africa, the Middle East, the Sahel, Central Africa, and Haiti. The intersection of insecurity, inflation, and limited humanitarian access presents critical concerns across the most affected regions.

Analysis from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) projects that shifts in trade policy could lead to a contraction in global agricultural trade of 3.3-4.7 percent and a decline in global GDP of 0.3-0.4 percent, with more severe impacts if retaliatory measures are implemented. These trade dynamics may reshape global agricultural market flows.